The LA pitching rotation is stronger, top to bottom. Their lineup is deeper, full of big bats and hitters who grind out at-bats and grind up opposing pitching staffs. There’s a reason the Dodgers finished 26 games over .500 and the Braves were just 10 over.
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But this is October, and anything can happen. As pretty much any Braves fan with postseason nightmares — Atlanta had lost 10 consecutive playoff series before knocking off the Reds in the Wild Card Series this year — can tell you, the “better” team doesn’t always win the playoff series. In 2003, the Braves led the NL with 101 wins, but lost in the Division Series to the 88-win Cubs. The Braves, in fact, had a better record than the team they lost to in 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2002, 2003 and again in 2019.
Thing is, Dodgers fans know this truth all too well, too, and the scars are still fresh. Last year, the Dodgers led the NL with 106 wins but lost to the 93-win Nationals in the NLDS, then watched the Nationals go on to win the World Series that’s eluded Los Angeles since 1988 despite 12 NL West titles since then.
So what needs to happen for Atlanta to knock off the mighty Dodgers? There are some obvious things, like Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuña Jr. have to produce like the superstars they are, and it would be nice if catcher Travis d’Arnaud continues to do his best Johnny Bench impersonation in the postseason. Let’s take a look at a couple of others.
1. They have to win either Game 1 or 2.
That sounds basic, and it is. But because of the depth issues in the Atlanta rotation — the Braves went into the season with Mike Soroka, Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez expected to be fixtures in their rotation, and all three are gone — everyone after Max Fried and Ian Anderson is a pretty big question mark. Kyle Wright threw six shutout innings against the Marlins in the NLDS, but Miami left six runners on base in the first three innings and a big hit or two — the type the Dodgers excel at producing — could have changed everything. I wrote more about the issues in this column, and everything remains true.
To get four wins against these Dodgers, the Braves absolutely have to get at least one in the first two games, with Fried and Anderson on the mound.
2. The relievers need starters’ help
This series, as you know, is being played with zero days off. The Braves have an outstanding bullpen, but it’s not a superhuman bullpen. Atlanta starters have to work at least mildly deep into games, which isn’t their specialty. Even with as good as Fried has been all season, he didn’t finish seven full innings even once in his 11 regular-season starts (he did go seven against the Reds in the Wild Card Series), and he topped out at exactly five innings in six of his 11 starts. Anderson went seven full once in his six regular-season starts but lasted less than six three times.
If the Braves have to use four or five of their best relievers in both Game 1 and 2, they could be in big trouble for Games 3, 4 and 5.
3. Adam Riley and Austin Duvall have to produce
The Braves have a pair of potentially big bats toward the bottom of the order, in Adam Duvall and Austin Riley. Both lean “streaky” over “reliable” though, and if the Braves are going to win this series, A&A can’t be easy outs. Riley has 17 postseason at-bats so far, with twice as many strikeouts (eight) as hits (four — all singles). Duvall is 2-for-20 with 11 strikeouts.
The Braves need the duo to streak the other way, and it’s possible. Riley had an eight-game stretch this year during which he hit .364 with a 1.170 OPS, three homers, three doubles, one triple and nine RBIs. Duvall has not one, but TWO three-homer games this year.
