That’s because Super Bowl XLVIII is still fresh on people’s minds. In that game, aSeahawks team that was built, and played, very similar to this Panthers team steamrolled the Broncos and their historically great offense.
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Only two years removed from that game and the Broncos are completely different, relying on a great defense to pick up for a fairly lethargic offense. Will the outcome be any different though? We turned to Madden NFL 16 for insight on how the game could end up playing out.
Last year, the Patriots held a 5-3-1 edge in player ratings for positional groups in Madden over the Seahawks, and they won in miraculous fashion in an all-time great game. With Super Bowl 50, the balance in ratings heavily favors the Panthers.
The final tally is 5-2-2 but the gaps in the categories that are won by the Panthers are far more considerable.
That starts at quarterback, undoubtedly the most important position on the field, where Cam Newton has a 98 Overall Rating compared to the 85 of Peyton Manning. Carolina is also stronger at running back, offensive line, defensive line, and special teams. The Broncos win out at linebacker (though the Panthers are strong there as well) and cornerback. There’s a virtual tie at safety and with receivers when factoring in tight ends.
Just because a team enters a game with the perception that they have the “better” players doesn’t ensure any particular outcome.
That was seen in the simulation run with Madden NFL 16, in which the Broncos won, 42-23. It was one-score game late into the third quarter, but the Panthers could not get the stops on defense they desperately needed.
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So what was the formula that led to the Broncos coming out on top? First, their offensive line held up, giving Manning a comfortable pocket throughout the game. While Denver couldn’t run the ball at all, huge plays on third downs broke the Panthers. Manning had plenty of time to find open receivers. They were 9-for-10 on third down!
Most surprisingly, Manning was not just attempting to throw the deep ball, but had success. That shouldn’t have been the case considering he has awful Throw Power (105 QBs in Madden are rated better in that category) and Deep Throw Accuracy (ranked 20th).
DeMaryius Thomas won pretty much every contested ball. The Panthers secondary is vulnerable considering the injuries they’ve suffered, and it really caught up to them here with Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan getting picked on and even Josh Norman getting beat.
Can Manning really exploit that weakness in such a manner? Does the offensive line of the Broncos have the ability to pass protect like a group of All-Pros? Will the Panthers defense be unable to force a turnover? Will Cam Newton be held in check, unable to convert on big plays in the passing game? It definitely all seems unlikely but that’s why they’re called storybook endings.
Bryan Wiedey posts sports gaming news and analysis daily at Pastapadre.com, has co-founded the new site HitThePass.com, hosts the Press Row Podcast, and be reached on Twitter @Pastapadre.
