No player draws more defensive attention without the ball than Curry. He’s led the league the past two years in the stat, and it’s safe to assume he’s doing so this year again, as he wraps up the most dominant shooting season of all-time.
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The impact of that on Curry’s teammates is obvious. With so much attention being focused on him — attention that requires guarding him 35 feet away from the basket — they have less to do for easy points. As a result, Golden State’s offensive rating falls from a league-leading 118.9 to 105.7 when Curry takes a seat on the bench, according to Basketball-Reference. While the latter is still elite, that 13.2-point differential is what separates a team like the Spurs from the 76ers.
The attention Curry is capable of drawing is perhaps most noticeable when he runs pick-and-rolls with Draymond Green, an All-Star combination that gives teams fits. Green (or whomever makes the final pass) gets credited for the assist in those 4-on-3 situations, but their success hinges on Curry’s ability to force a switch, double-team or help. If he wasn’t in the 97.5 percentile in pick-and-roll scoring and capable of hitting shots like this:
Curry wouldn’t lead the league in secondary assists ( 2.5 per game) thanks to opponents aggressively closing out on him and letting their assignments roam free like this:
But Curry doesn’t even have to work that hard to make his teammates better, which is where the gravitational pull comes into play. Because he’s such a versatile scorer — Curry is good for over 1.19 points per possession off of screens and cuts, making him a cross between the best shooter in the world and a bulking center like Brook Lopez — his assignment has no choice but to stick with him when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.
That complicates matters for defenders when Curry is running around the half court and setting back screens on his teammates. The decision teams are usually faced with tends to be simple: Give up an uncontested layup to someone like Green, or allow Curry to wiggle free for a 3-pointer. With the latter being the equivalent of a layup for Curry, there isn’t really a right way to defend it.
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For example, notice how bad of a spot Eric Bledsoe puts Jon Leuer in by sticking to Curry rather than cutting off a routine pass from Thompson to Green by hedging:
With nobody in position to help, all Green has to do is make a simple cut towards the basket to get a layup. Had Bledsoe helped off, however, Curry would’ve made a beeline for the 3-point line by utilizing screens from Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala to get open.
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If you want to see five defenders panic at the same time, watch how the Nuggets react when the ball works its way into Curry’s hands for a spot-up opportunity. Since only J.J. Redick converts spot-ups at a higher clip on the season, Jameer Nelson and Gary Harris make the cardinal sin of both closing out on Curry in addition to Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Jusuf Nurkic all leaving their assignments by squaring their shoulders in his direction. Following two crisp passes along the perimeter, Barnes makes them pay for over-helping by knocking down a corner 3 with Nurkic making a late closeout.
Curry told told ESPN that he doesn’t even expect the ball in transition anymore because teams have shifted their focus away from protecting the basket to protecting the 3-point line. That sometimes leads to awkward defensive breakdowns like this one from the Cavaliers, with Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith jumping out at Curry and leaving Andre Iguodala cutting to the rim for an uncontested dunk within five seconds of the shot clock:
To make matters more confusing for opponents, the Warriors have also mastered the art of misdirection when Curry has the ball in his hands. Only Russell Westbrook (47.1) and James Harden (46.8) — both of whom boast a slightly higher usage rating — are responsible for more points than Curry (45.6) on a game-to-game basis when their personal scoring and points created by assists are combined. So not only does the slightest mistake open up plays for Curry, it puts him in position to set teammates up in their sweet spots.
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It doesn’t have to be complicated, either. Golden State sometimes has a shooter like Thompson take the role of Green in the pick-and-roll to maximize Curry’s craftiness as a facilitator. But rather than cutting to the rim like Green, they use the threat of Curry to their advantage by having Thompson slip the screen and pop for a 3-pointer. That either leads to a pull-up from Curry (a 45.9 percent 3-point shooter) if they don’t hedge or a catch-and-shoot from Thompson (a 43.0 percent 3-point shooter) if they decide to double.
Take this set against the Jazz:
Notice how Rodney Hood ops for the latter on the following play by leaving Thompson to jump out at Curry. While it prevents Curry from getting a chance at sending the game into overtime, it leaves Thompson curling to the wing for a 3-pointer. Then, pay attention to what happens when Shaun Livingston rebounds Thompson’s miss. Instead of rushing towards Thompson, Hood immediately shades towards Curry on the opposite side of the court despite Joe Ingles being in his vicinity.
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Gordon Hayward makes the right decision to leave Barnes and close out on Thompson, but giving the second best shooter in the NBA back-to-back attempts from the perimeter will rarely end well. Take Curry out of the picture and Hood probably would’ve done the opposite by running to Thompson first, thereby giving the Jazz a better chance of winning the game.
As much as Curry’s skill set has developed since he was at Davidson, his gravitational pull has remained a constant. Just ask Loyola (Md.), which famously held him scoreless in a game they lost by 30 points. Now, though, Curry has the luxury of playing alongside a historically elite shooter, one of the most versatile big men we’ve ever seen and a leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year — among other gifted players on their roster.
The margin of error was already minuscule with Curry, and his evolution into a highly efficient scorer off ball only exacerbates that problem.
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Less than a handful of NBA players have the makeup to avoid this conundrum by sticking with Curry 1-on-1 without the help of their teammates. Two of them are in the Eastern Conference (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Avery Bradley) while the other two play on the same team (Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green).
But even that isn’t foolproof. And that’s why there’s so little hope for most teams hoping to prevent another Warriors championship run.
