Mark Feygin—a former deputy in the State Duma and human rights lawyer whose high profile clients have included the Pussy Riot punk band—told Newsweek that a comprehensive defeat for Putin in Ukraine could unleash a “bloody” civil war with a range of factions and regions vying for power.
“What will be depends greatly on the way this war will conclude,” Feygin said, adding that Ukraine could “crash” Putin’s government even without seizing back the Crimean peninsula if Kyiv’s troops are able to liberate the Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhanks, and Donetsk oblasts Mosocw claims to have annexed.
For Feygin and other expatriate dissidents, thoughts are turning to the transfer of power.
“The easiest would be if elites inside Russia will make up their mind and choose a replacement for Putin, a replacement who could negotiate with the West, could provide some initial framework for concluding the logistics of that war, and then also work towards future elections,” Feygin said.
The top candidate in this situation would be current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Feygin said. Mishustin was elevated to the post from relative obscurity in 2020 and not directly involved with the decision to launch the war or manage its progress.
A Mishustin caretaker-government would “soften the blow” of defeat, Feygin said, and allow Moscow to quickly walk back its claimed annexations of Ukrainian territory.
“That is most likely the most comfortable solution for the elite,” Feygin said. “In this case, the Russian elites can find a way to hold power, there is potential for them to regenerate themselves and basically, resolve it with minimum consequences to their own standing and their own position and the hierarchy.”
How Russian Civil War Might Look
But there is a darker scenario, Feygin added, in which Putin refuses to bow to opposition. “Russian elites break within themselves into different factions; one supporting Putin, others not supporting him, trying to topple him,” he said. “This could lead to a civil war.”
“Putin could be a reason for this civil war to start if he feels threatened, if he resists his removal,” Feygin added. “You can see that he’s already created private war companies: Wagner and the Kadyrov troops. In essence, they’re his private armies that he possibly could use.”
“They could become part of that civil war scenario inside Russia, which would likely include the army, the FSB, and other inner circles that would resist losing power if Putin is to quit or if he is forced to leave his position.”
“This very likely will lead to a scenario all against all. And that could be a much bloodier situation.”
A power struggle in Russia would be enormously destabilizing for Eurasia and beyond. Russia’s nuclear arsenal—on paper the largest in the world—would be at risk, the viability of energy, mineral, and agricultural exports would be uncertain, and bordering nations might face an influx of refugees.
Feygin said major nations would become involved either through ambition or necessity, while regional Russian leaders might also make a play for independence.
“There are other opposition centres, other territories that will definitely join the fight if this scenario will ensue,” Feygin said. “And we cannot also exclude bigger countries outside of Russian territories such as China and others that might be interested in certain outcomes. They will have to play in this game.”
“This will definitely be a bloody scenario,” Feygin said. “It depends upon how much Putin will resist his removal from power.”
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry to request comment.
